Development of an Event-Linked Counterfactual Diagnostic Layer for C3S Operational Attribution Office

Development of a methodological framework and supporting procedures: Generation of event-conditioned diagnostic evidence for high-impact extreme events by assessing how key characteristics of observed present-day events would differ under counterfactual climate conditions without anthropogenic warming. This includes a scientifically robust and operationally feasible approach, an assessment of data availability, computational requirements, reproducibility, interpretability, and delivery timelines. No new large-scale climate or weather model simulations will be undertaken. The contractor will establish quality requirements and an evaluation methodology in consultation with C3S, and provide a comprehensive handover package to support future operational or pre-operational implementation.

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